In collaboration with the federal offices concerned, the Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE calculated how transport in Switzerland will develop up to 2040. In the reference scenario, the person-kilometres travelled will increase by a quarter by 2040. This is slightly less than projected population growth. By 2040, the share of all transport accounted for by public transport will rise by four percentage points. Assuming a 46 % increase in GDP, both the volume of freight transport and the tonne-kilometres transported will rise by 37 %. The cost of transporting freight by road will increase more than the cost of rail transport, so the modal split in terms of tonne-kilometres will shift by two percentage points towards the railways.