What if the Paris climate targets are not met? An ongoing study involving INFRAS is examining extreme scenarios of climate change for Germany. One focus is on adaptation options in such high-end scenarios.
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees by 2100 – with a target of 1.5 degrees. However, the climate protection measures of individual states are currently lagging behind these targets. Climate change and its impacts could therefore be much more severe.
For the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), a study led by adelphi and involving INFRAS is examining what extreme scenarios of climate change could look like for Germany. Such scenarios have so far been little researched.
What it means when tipping points are exceeded
The high-end scenarios illuminate the consequences of climate change that moves within the upper ends of the IPCC's climate projections.
If certain tipping points in the Earth system are exceeded, the possibilities of conventional adaptation measures to climate change also reach their limits. For Germany, this would mean, for example, that land in coastal areas may have to be abandoned because dikes cannot be raised sufficiently.
Focus on international interrelationships and effects
The study develops various scenarios assuming strong climate change. Case studies make the extreme scenarios tangible. Adaptation measures and limits of adaptation are analyzed. In addition to the national impacts for Germany, international consequences – and in turn their effects on Germany – are also addressed. The project will be completed in the course of 2024.
Further information
Further selected INFRAS studies about environment/climate:
Project team
